The Ministry of Industry, Commerce and Tourism has published today the foreign trade report, January-June 2023, which indicates that the Spanish exports they increased by 4,7% compared to the same period of the previous year, standing at 199.951,2 million euros. This is a significant slowdown compared to the 24,8% growth experienced during the same period of the previous year, when exports soared partly due to the increase in prices. Last May also saw a turning point, with a first negative growth that in June was -2,8%.
During the first half of 2023, Spanish exports grew above the exports of two of its main economies, such as Germany (3,2% year-on-year) and Italy (4,1%), but below France (6,9 %).
The sectors that contributed the most to the annual variation rate of exports were the automotive sector (3,2 points), capital goods (2,8 points), and the food, beverage and tobacco sector (1,2 points). . The main negative contributions came from the sectors of energy products (-1,5 points, after increasing exports by 120,9% year-on-year in June 2022 due to the international context), non-chemical semi-manufactures (contribution of -1,1 points) , raw materials (contribution of -0,4 points) and other merchandise (contribution of -0,1 points). "The data reflects in Spain the effects of the containment of inflation: the increase in prices had triggered the value of exports to record figures in the first quarter of 2022, especially in the components related to energy products," explains the CEO of amec, Joan Tristany.
The good performance of the industry and a greater normalization of prices are responsible for the fact that the capital goods sector occupies the top positions in terms of contribution to total exports (18,9%). "This sector and the automotive sector, in 2023, have had somewhat easier access to certain essential raw materials whose prices, which had skyrocketed, have fallen, although they are not yet at pre-pandemic levels," says the director amec general
In this sense, the recovery of the automotive sector after a sharp fall is more than remarkable. "His recovery has come later than others did, such as food or chemicals," says Tristany. The rise in it explains the better behavior of exports in communities where the sector is more important, such as Catalonia.
Regarding the behavior of the markets, in the first semester the trend of increased sales to the traditional partners of the European Union continued, which as a whole grew by 6,3%, to represent 63,3% of the total. "Despite slowing down, the European economy continues to be vital for us, so we must be attentive to its evolution," says the CEO of amec.
The Latin American market also continues to recover. After a large drop during the pandemic, Mexico (11%) mainly pushed joint growth in the first half of 21,2% (until Latin America represented 5,4% of total exports).
“We are in a slowdown phase, in all sectors except the automobile. We must be calm but vigilant, while continuing to monitor geopolitical conflicts, which are increasingly affecting commercial relations”, explains the general director of amec, Joan Tristany.
An example of the increasingly leading role of geopolitics in exchanges occurs in Africa. Although an increase in exports of 5,4% to Morocco stands out, those of the continent as a whole have fallen by 7,6%. "Exports to Algeria have fallen due to the position of the Government regarding the Western Sahara conflict. With this, Spanish companies are losing not only their customers, who are already looking for alternative suppliers, but also an important gateway to the entire continent”, explains the CEO of amec. “The increase in geopolitical tensions is leading to the tightening of barriers to trade, which is used as a weapon by countries. Companies must be prepared to be able to anticipate and adapt to new scenarios that may occur in the future”, warns Tristany.
“The increase in rates by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank continue to guide the economy towards slowdown, although industry and foreign trade continue to show their strength. We need to be aware of their importance, so that the administrations continue to bet on them and on the change in the production model that digitization and sustainability imply, since in more complicated times and falling internal demand they will be the ones that once again allow us to get ahead,” says Tristany.
